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EUR/USD Daily Analysis & Chart



A surprisingly stable euro is dominating the pair - we expect further bullishness.



Today we’d look into the EUR/USD trading instrument. The pair has had an interesting few months - 2017 began with widespread speculation that between the weakening euro and the strengthening dollar we’d meet in the middle and see perfect parity before the year’s end. However, this hasn’t been the case and lately we’ve seen the opposite, though in milder terms - a slight strengthening of the euro versus a somewhat weaker dollar.



Even though the euro lost some of its momentum over the weekend, our outlook for it remains positive. We might see some gains today as the markets in the United States are on a break for the Independence Day celebrations.



The euro is very close to the psychological level of 1.14. We have been getting data about the European economy that’s been consistently positive, including the most recent PMI report.

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USD/SEK: Review & Forecast

Riksbank supported the SEK while the USD was losing positions amid political tensions and investors' worries about the rate change by the FED.

The rates continue in the frames of a downward trend, although in the period from May 19 until June 27 the trend changed to a flat one. It seemed that the downward trend had been finally completed at the beginning of July. However, market volatility has suddenly increased, and the downward trend has been restored.
This week there were no significant factors that would affect the USD/SEK rates. The main factor that influence the value of the USD in recent weeks remains the political tension in the United States and investors' worries about the future for the FED rate hikes due to weak economic data in the United States. At the same time, Federal Reserve officials maintain the stance that the rates should be raised more before the end of 2017. Nevertheless, investors suppose that the Federal Reserve may delay increasing the interest rate if the situation in the U.S. economy changes in a positive way and if political tensions in the US grow. Based on this, the dollar lost positions against most currencies while investors prefer safe-haven instruments such as JPY and Gold.

Read more here: superforex.com/analytics/usd-sek-review-forecast-050717

[superforex]

USD/SEK: Review & Forecast

Riksbank supported the SEK while the USD was losing positions amid political tensions and investors' worries about the rate change by the FED.

The rates continue in the frames of a downward trend, although in the period from May 19 until June 27 the trend changed to a flat one. It seemed that the downward trend had been finally completed at the beginning of July. However, market volatility has suddenly increased, and the downward trend has been restored.
This week there were no significant factors that would affect the USD/SEK rates. The main factor that influence the value of the USD in recent weeks remains the political tension in the United States and investors' worries about the future for the FED rate hikes due to weak economic data in the United States. At the same time, Federal Reserve officials maintain the stance that the rates should be raised more before the end of 2017. Nevertheless, investors suppose that the Federal Reserve may delay increasing the interest rate if the situation in the U.S. economy changes in a positive way and if political tensions in the US grow. Based on this, the dollar lost positions against most currencies while investors prefer safe-haven instruments such as JPY and Gold.

Read more here: superforex.com/analytics/usd-sek-review-forecast-050717

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We forecast new growth for the USD/JPY and good buy opportunities.

Today we direct our attention to the USD/JPY currency pair. Yesterday the USD/JPY showed significant progress and was quite active during the day, but it eventually failed to overcome the 113.60 level and retracted. Still, we believe the pair would likely continue to test its resistances and make space for further upward movement, as long as the pair keeps trading above the level of 113.

To predict future highs, we can reliably use the guidance of the nearby resistance levels for the USD/JPY - we have resistances at 113.19, 113.41, and 113.63. We believe that overcoming these resistance levels is the most likely course for the pair as it stands now.

Still, it’s good to be prepared for the alternative scenario as well. On the downside, we have several nearby support levels such as 112.75, 112.50, and 112. If the first support is breached, likely we’d see the pair play around the other two supports as well.

At this point the movements of the USD/JPY largely depend on trader sentiment and market behavior. The level of 114 stands before us as a psychological barrier, and if the pair is pushed beyond it, we can see it grow further up to 115 even.

As of the moment of this article’s publication the USD/JPY is trading around the first level of resistance at 113.19. Most technical indicators agree that the best course of action is a strong buy stance.

Read more: superforex.com/analytics

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A New Hope for the Pound

The United Kingdom's currency seems to have finally slowed its descent - could it be ready to start recovering?

The future of the British currency became quite uncertain the weeks leading up to the Brexit vote last June, then slumped after the results came through. Now it seems that for the first time in 2017 investors are changing their views on the pound for the better. However, this pertains to the pound vs the dollar; where the euro is concerned, the situation is different.

This discrepancy could be easily explained. For one thing, investors expected a lot more from the US economy, mostly riding on Donald Trump’s promised goals as president, especially his vow to bring economic growth up to 3%. This is easier said than done, as we’ve seen. Lukewarm reports from the United States, as well as Trump’s general struggle to enact any kind of policy successfully have made investors lower their expectations. We’ve even seen the dollar drop against all major currencies in recent weeks.

The situation is pretty much the opposite with the eurozone. The European Central Bank is in the midst of a massive stimulus program to encourage healthy inflation and spending. Even though the expectation was to see it continue a bit longer, the program is already paying off and surprisingly good economic data from all around Europe has prompted the ECB to admit they may start phasing out the program before the year’s end and turn to a more hawkish policy on the euro. In addition, fears of further political unrest in the EU have been calmed by Macron’s victory in the French presidential elections in April. We still have to see what would happen in the German general elections this fall, but things seem promising for Angela Merkel. It was previously feared she might not gather enough support but after a successful equal marriage rights vote last week it seems likely that she would stay in power.

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GBP/USD Technical Overview

We predict a moderate volatility for the pair, with a bias in favor of the USD.

Today we would take a detailed look at the GBP/USD currency pair. It has been exhibiting bearish symptoms for a while now, failing to overcome the strong resistance region around 1.30.

The pound, of course, is still low. It dropped dramatically last year after the Brexit vote, and although its descent has slowed down, it’s still far away from its highs in 2015. Today we expect some news from the United Kingdom regarding interest rates (which the UK is expected to increase soon) and other issues pertaining to monetary policy. These could potentially give the GBP a long-awaited boost versus major currencies. Still, there is a lot of political uncertainty troubling the United Kingdom. The UK is in the first stages of Brexit negotiations with the European Union, a time that calls for strong leadership - but instead, British media are littered with speculation about the possible resignation of Theresa May. An inability to form a strong government with a well-supported Prime Minister would not bode well for the British pound.

On the other hand, last week produced some positive economic statistics about the United States, which gave the dollar a push. We’re also awaiting a new job openings report today, which is supposed to show a decrease from before. There will also be an important announcement by the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates (there are more increases expected, but their possible dates seem unpredictable to traders right now).

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AUD/CAD: Fundamental Review & Forecast

The CAD continues strengthening against the AUD. Investors expect an increase of the interest rate today.

The rates of the AUD/CAD continue in the frames of a downtrend. Last month the Canadian dollar successfully withstood the pressure due to low oil prices and strengthened against the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar continued decreasing even after the positive statistics about the trade balance, although this did support the AUD for a few days. Last week the RBA refused to raise the interest rate. Despite the positive economic data, the RBA supposes that the goals of its stimulus program haven't been achieved yet. In particular, the RBA is concerned about the situation on the labour market.


This week we do not expect important information about the AUD. The only thing that can have an impact on the value of the AUD is information about the Chinese economy. As for the CAD, we expect important information. In particular, this evening investors expect a decision from the Bank of Canada regarding raising the interest rate. Given the recent information about the PMI index and positive reports about the employment market, investors are sure that the Bank of Canada will raise the interest rate by 25 pips - up to 0.75%, for the first time since 2010. Thus, Canada will become the first country after the United States to tighten its monetary policy amid the good economic situation in the country. Another reason for the further strengthening of the CA, is a growth in oil prices, which have increased due to information about a reduction in the reserves of WTI crude oil by 2.1 million barrels for a week in the main oil storage reservoir of the United States. In addition, it was reported that OPEC can limit the volume of oil extraction in Nigeria and Libya, which were free from obligations to reduce the volume of oil production with the current agreement.

In this situation, the optimal decision is to open the deals on the trend. The Stochastic oscillator also gives a signal for short deals indicating the rates in the overbought zone.

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Qatar Crisis Continues

Qatar is still under blockade by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and two other countries. Can Qatar's economy weather this storm?

A few weeks ago we shed a little bit of light on the current diplomatic crisis in Qatar. It has been essentially blockaded by its neighbouring countries on the grounds of supposedly promoting terrorism and destabilizing the Middle East. This has made it slightly more complicated for Qatar to import and export goods, but as we learned from Qatar’s finance minister, there was no need to worry too much. Or is there?

The countries opposing Qatar are Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Bahrain. They made a list of demands that aim at making Qatar work for better stability in the region. However, the blockaded state has refused to comply, stating that the demands may constitute a violation of international law, reports CNN. In retaliation, the four countries which cut ties with Qatar have showed a determination to step up their measures and increase pressure on Qatar, though the meaning of this is yet unclear.

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EUR/JPY Technical Outlook before the Rate Decisions
The BOJ's policy rate will push the Yen to rise a little.
This week the markets are looking forward to the rate decisions of two important banks - the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. This will cause a huge volatility. We will take a look at the instrument most likely to be affected, the EUR/JPY currency pair, and hunt for good opportunities for this week.

The EUR/JPY pair recorded its highest levels in 17 months at 130.75 and then it bounced back to trade now at 129.00. It declined last week on the release front as the Eurozone Final CPI edged down to 1.3%, matching the forecast. On Tuesday Germany and the eurozone will release ZEW Economic Sentiments.

The pair broke an important support level at the moving average 50 and it’s trading now at an important key area at the upside trend line. We predict it will break the trend line and decline further but we have to wait to see where this candle will close exactly.
So, what can we do in the next hours?

As we mentioned above, we will wait for a candle close below the trend line below 128.70 and sell the pair, keeping our first target at 127.50 and the second one at 126.20; that's in case the pair breaks the second trend line.

This week we have to be careful in our trades because we have important events which will cause high volatility in the market such as a decision from the BOJ regading the policy rate and the press conference for Kuroda, as well as the minimum Bid Rate for the European Central Bank on Thursday.

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USD/MXN: Fundamental Review & Forecast

The MXN has achieved its April 2016 level, while the USD is losing positions due to the failure of the health care reform.

The rates of the USD/MXN pair continue in the frames of the downtrend which has lasted for more than six months, when the Mexican peso fell as a result of the presidential elections in the USA and D. Trump's anti-immigration protectionist policies openly directed against Mexico. Despite several factors against the Mexican peso, such as perspectives for lowering oil prices and the worsened relations between the U.S. and Mexico, the peso managed to recover its lost positions.


This week the MXN reached the level from April 2016 amid the rising oil prices and the failure of the health care reform in the United States. This points to the inefficiency and weakness of Donald Trump's administration. The failure of the health care reform threatens the further policies of Donald Trump and decreases his popularity in the United States. The US dollar was also negatively impacted by the cautious rhetoric of Yellen about a further tightening the FED policy. Also, amid disappointing data about inflation and retail sales, investors began to doubt whether we would see a further increasing of the interest rate this year.

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The Euro Back to 2015 Highs

The euro continues to take on the USD in a confident bullish movement.

This week we turn our eyes to Europe once more. The economic climate in the European Union seems to be quite heated these days: many reports coming from all around the eurozone are flooding in, and investors are paying close attention to the euro, particularly in the context of the much weaker dollar we’ve been seeing these days.

Earlier today the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters was published. The survey, which is quite important to the ECB and whose results always figure into the decision-making process of the ECB, showed that while there is stable economic growth and a decrease in the unemployment rate, the inflation rate still remains relatively low. As we’ve mentioned before on our blog, the ECB is currently in the midst of a massive stimulus program whose goal is to boost inflation to a healthy level. It appears this level still hasn’t been achieved, despite investors’ hopes that the ECB might be satisfied with the current progress and start turning towards more hawkish policies.

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USD/JPY Technical Overview ahead of the Fed Rate



The USD/JPY pair returned back to the channel and we expect further lows.



Last week the US Dollar was weaker against most of the majors, especially since there were few economic calendar events from the USA and investors focused instead on Washington’s rising political tensions. However, this week is different and trading will depend on fundamentals with the release of consumer confidence, the Fed’s July rate statement, and the preliminary second quarter gross domestic product (GDP).



The USD/JPY currency pair returned back to the price channel again after breaking it upward. We took a buy position and our first target was at 114.32 - the prices already hit it and returned again, then the pair broke the moving average last Friday. It has a key support area at 110.23, 50 pips down. The MACD indicator gave us the sell signal after the columns appeared below the zero level. It’s expected that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged this month and won’t increase it, so we predict the pair will decline further.



The Next Few Days



After we saw the prices back inside the channel again we can sell the pair from the current levels at 110.75 and keep our first target at 110.23, with a second one at 108.34 at this year’s low. Nevertheless, if the prices return back to 112.00 again we will change our vision to be bullish.



This week is overwhelming with much hot news from the United States which hold the potential to cause high volatility on the market: the CB Consumer Confidence, the FOMC statement, and the GDP for the second quarter.

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XAU/USD: Short Review and Forecast
The market has been extremely volatile the last few months. Investors are waiting for the results of the FED meeting. The GOLD has good chances to increase in price if the FED doesn't change the rate.

The Gold has been extremely volatile for the last few months. On the H4 chart we can see a large number of different micro trends that continually replace each other every month. This has created uncertainty on the market. Volatility is higher than ever: in just three months, the price varied in the range of 1216-1294 dollars. Overall, the trend looks flat, but with a huge range.


This week, the price achieved a monthly maximum, but decreased a bit because investors are awaiting the results from the Federal Reserve meeting held today. The Fed meeting will show if the interest rate is going to be increased or not. Investors suppose that interest rates are unlikely to be increased before December. Inflation in the United States was lower than expected for the fourth month in a row. Other economic indicators also do not impress the market. The Gold also has been rising in price due to the failure of the health care reform and the weakening of the USD.

Given that the Federal Reserve rate hike is unlikely in the near future, we expect a further increasing of Gold value, after the price correction. This also confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, which indicates that the current rates are in the oversold zone. A further increase of the Gold's value will lead to the formation of a steady uptrend. Therefore, the deals to BUY can be considered as the most effective.

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How Healthcare Failed the Dollar

Amid the ruins of the Republicans' attempts to repeal and replace Obamacare, the USD is the true victim.

While we have been focusing on other regions in our most recent articles, one detail often popped up in our analysis: the fact that the American dollar has weakened. Why did that happen? That’s what we’ll try to find out today.

Now, if you take a look back to 2015 and 2016, you’d see the dollar overtaking most major currencies, making consistent gains as the US economy was doing splendidly. The USD experienced volatility around the 2016 Presidential elections, but after Trump’s win investors decided to back him up in hopes that his protectionist policies and focus on infrastructure would boost the economy. As a result, the dollar ended 2016 at record highs and at the turn of 2017 people were already talking of possible parity with the euro, with various temporal prognoses, most commonly by the year’s end.

However, we are now seven months into 2017 and six months into Trump’s presidency, and things are not looking good. Trump has failed repeatedly to find support for his policy-making, and save for his promise to revive the coal industry, he hasn’t achieved much from what was on his campaign’s agenda. Investors have been continuously changing their expectations of his presidency with every passing day, and have little to no confidence in him right now, since polls are showing massive losses in Trump’s popularity among American citizens. This led to a lack of confidence in the American dollar too; the USD has suffered losses, while safe-haven trading instruments such as gold have regained some of their popularity in recent times.

The most recent political fiasco of Trump’s administration is undoubtedly the failed healthcare reform. Republicans have been attempting to get rid of the Affordable Care Act (commonly known as Obamacare) even before it was enacted years ago. Now that they finally have the upper hand in the Senate, it is astonishing just how poorly this was handled. Republicans kept details about their reform secret; the President expressed support for the bill without having seen it, and later switched his position, calling it “mean.” After a series of failed votes (including from Republican senators), the massively unpopular bill failed. It was then replaced with a plan to simply repeal Obamacare and return things to the way they were. In light of this, however, an estimate of 15 million people would have been left without insurance next year, and even more in the future. Last night even the vote to repeal Obamacare failed.

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CL/WTI: Short Review & Middle Term Forecast

After the depressed period we have an upward trend again and preconditions for further growth, given the long-term perspectives for increasing demand.

Between May and the end of June the market was depressed. Oil fell in price from $51 to $42. It seemed that the falling of oil prices is unstoppable. The oversupply of crude oil, the increase of oil extraction volumes even amid OPEC countries and the growth of oil reserves in the United States created a desperate situation, whereby market participants were unable to control the market and achieve a balance between demand and supply.

However, in July oil began to recover due to the reduction of oil stocks in the United States and the reduction of drilling activity. In addition, the oil recovered in price amid the long-term forecasts which show perspectives for growth in the demand for oil, although some analysts disagree with that. Nevertheless, given the recent data such as the index of business activity in China from Caixin, which marks the increasing of business activity, there are good preconditions for an increasing demand for raw materials in China. The decreasing in oil reserves in the United States will ease the pressure on the oil market for the next few months.

CL/WTI, H4
In the near future the market will focus on the upcoming OPEC meeting, which will take place on August 7-8. The volatility over the past few months has remained very high, but it's decreasing. We can expect for sure a continuation of the rates in the frames of the current uptrend. After the price correction, prices may recover to the level of 50-51 dollars. The Stochastic oscillator also indicates a good time to open the deals to BUY on the trend.