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Post by superforex on Apr 26, 2017 7:35:45 GMT -5
CAD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast While the Euro has strengthened sharply against the Japanese yen, showing a giant price hike from 116.8 JPY up to 121 JPY based on results of the 1st round of elections in France, while the yen is losing positions against most currencies because it is under the pressure, mainly due to the tense situation on the Korean Peninsula, the canadian dollar failed to take the initiative and the rates CAD/JPY continues in the frames of downward trend. Though it's strengthened a bit yesterday. At the moment, the Canadian dollar is under the pressure of many factors, firstly because of the falling in oil prices. The price for black gold fell again, and fell below the psychological point in $ 50. Forecasts here aren't good for the CAD because the United States continues to increase oil production, and President D. Trump supporting it and trying to make conditions for energy companies easier for developing oil extraction on the continental territory in the U.S. and on the shelf. Also, the canadian dollar decreasing in value because D. Trump continues to demand revision of trade relations with its neighbors and contradictions between Canada and the United States becomes more and more serious. This week is full of important events, and the market will get a lot of macroeconomic statistics, which will affect the rates of CAD/JPY. Today, the market awaits important information about the volume of retail sales in Canada, conference of the President of the United States. Also, tomorrow we'll get the Report of the Bank of Japan about perspectives for Japanese economy, and on Friday we expect data about Canada's GDP, consumer price indices and volume of production in Japan. Therefore, this week, volatility may increase. Probably we can expect for further strengthening of JPY in the frames of current downtrend. The oscillators Stochastics and MACD unanimously indicate the good moment to open the deals to SELL, after the price correction, which occurred yesterday. Read more reviews at superforex.com/analytics
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Post by superforex on May 3, 2017 10:26:32 GMT -5
OIL (CL/WTI): middle term review and forecast Oil prices continue weakening but the rates are still in the frames of upward trend which began over a year ago. However, the trend is near the completion, and now on the daily chart, you can see signs of the flat trend formation, as the prices from November 2016, keep in the range of 47 - $ 54 per barrel. Support and resistance lines hadn't been broken for all the time. Uncreasing of the drilling rigs in the United States, 15 consecutive week, continue to adversely affect the price of oil. The price of oil reached a minimum level, which for 6 months has been achieved only 2 times. On the market we can see uncertain situation: on the one hand, OPEC countries are going to continue the agreement “On the reduction of oil production”, and investors believe that it will be done at the next meeting, may 25. On the other hand, the USA abolishes all these efforts with their growth of oil production. Increasing of oil demand will unlikely resolve the issue with the overabundance of oil on the market. Amid this, long-term forecasts of some analysts, in particular experts from Citigroup (NYCE:C) about further increasing the price of oil to $ 65 in the second half of the year, does not seem probable cause oil prices are constantly under the pressure from a number of factors. This week it was the recovery of oil production in Libya, the recession of business activity in China and mentioned before, constant increasing in drilling rigs in the United States. Factors that could unambiguously support the price of oil are not enough, but the situation may change at the end of the month on the results of the OPEC meeting. At this moment, the entry point to the market we can call the levels of 47.4 and 48.2. The most optimal for the moment we can determine the deals to BUY which can be effective to get the profit on the price correction. MACD, RSI, oscillators partially confirm this. It is most likely that after reaching a new minimum level, the price will move up. Soon investors will focus on the next OPEC meeting, and news from countries-participants of the Agreement “On the reduction of oil production”. It can slightly enhance the price of black gold in the short term.
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Post by superforex on May 5, 2017 7:18:07 GMT -5
USD/SEK – review and short term forecast. USD/SEK becomes one of the most underrated currency pairs on the market, considering very high volatility and predictability. It helps to see how the results of the Presidential elections in France affected the rates. Of course, the main reason for the strengthening of the Swedish Krona, which strengthened against the dollar, was the strengthening of the Euro. Question of the victory of E. Makron is a question of the EU future. Sweden is highly depending on the EU. That's why it happened but the giant price hike from 9.02, to 8.7 SEK surpassed all expectations from the predictable outcome of these elections. Traders who are focused on currency pairs related with Euro - EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP and others, missed a great opportunity to earn on USD/SEK. At the moment, the rates consolidated at the level of 8.83 - 8.84 SEK for $ 1. The market is waiting for the unemployment report in the United States. Also, in the evening, we expect the speech of the FED Chairperson Yellen and FOMC members. It can affect the rates and strengthen the dollar. But recently received information about Swedish economy, in particular, increase of the volume of industrial production in 3.8% year on year, the increase in orders for the industry, achieving one of the highest levels over the past 10 years, will not allow the Swedish krona to lose a lot in price. Though the main event is the 2nd round of the French elections, where the victory of E. Makron is obvious for investors. It definitely will lead to further strengthening of the EUR and SEK. At the moment the rates of the USD/SEK are in the frames of the flat trend but high volatility, which can be seen on the chart since the beginning of this year, makes this trend special: the rates are in a very wide range from 9.07 - up to 8.76 SEK. The most clear the trend can be seen only on the hourly and daily chart. Points of entry can be considered on the levels 8.817 and 8.855. Oscillator MACD is neutral while the Stochastic is showing a signal to open the short deals, which is absolutely right decision upon medium-term trade, considering possible impact of the upcoming elections in France, on the rates of USD/SEK. Upon short-term trading, you can open the deals to BUY, though volatility won't be high today. read more reviews at superforex.com/analytics
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Post by superforex on May 10, 2017 6:24:05 GMT -5
NZD/USD: fundamental review and forecast Situation for the NZD has not changed yet. the rates continue to be in the frames of the downward trend, though it lost its intensity. The dollar continues to strengthen against the NZD, although we can not say that the New Zealand economy is in a bad state. Despite the rising inflation, the country's economy gradually develops and demonstrates growth. However, it does not allow the New Zealand currency to hold against the strong U.S. dollar. Last week, the dollar strengthened amid the positive statistics about unemployment and the results of the FED meeting, which decided to leave interest rate unchanged, but considering sure growth of the US economy, reducing in unemployment, they plan to do it in June if nothing changes. Therefore, the probability of a rate hike is rated as very high. At the moment, the rates of the NZD/USD stabilized in the range of 0.688 - 0,694 USD. We can also say that these levels are also good entry points to the market. Until the next day, volatility will be low because investors are waiting for the meeting of the Federal Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and their decision to change the rate. Now it's 1.75%. Investors don't expect for the rate changes just because the RBNZ in March, said that they don't not plan to change the rate until the 2019. Though continued weakening of the NZD can make them to change their decision because the rate increase would strengthen the NZD. Oscillators are neutral for the moment and in this situation, the best solution is to open the deals on the trend. We can say that also, considering that there're no any real reasons for the trend change and strengthening of the NZD in the near future. Therefore, the deals to SELL can be the most effective now, upon the short and medium-term trading. Read more at superforex.com/analytics
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Post by superforex on May 12, 2017 7:24:54 GMT -5
AUD/CAD: review and forecast The rates of the AUD/CAD continues in the frames of the upward trend. The canadian dollar remains under the pressure of low oil prices. Volatility for this currency pair remains very high. So, in early may, disappointing statistics about economy of Australia and China, have led to significant falling of the AUD value. During 1 day it has been lost 2 CAD cents. It was influence of the data about the trade balance of Australia. Investors expected the growth of the surplus to 3.4 billion while it was just 3.1 billion; also disappointed the value of the business activity index in the services sector in China. By the end of next week, the volatility in the market can be decreased. The market don't expect any important data until next Friday. Then, the market will receive information about retail sales and consumer prices in Canada, for April. A day earlier, also expect information on employment in Australia in April. It should also be noted that this month will be the summit of the OPEC and volatility will be gradually increasing together with the oil prices. So it can strengthen the CAD because it is expected that on the upcoming summit countries-exporters will extend the agreement about Reduction of the oil extraction. Therefore, oil prices will rise for some time, but countries which didn't join the agreement, mainly the US, unlikely will let oil to rise significantly in price for a long period because if prices increase the USA increasing the volume of oil production, adversely affecting the market. Oscillators are neutral at the moment, but considering perspectives of oil prices growth in the near future, and consequently the strengthening of the Canadian dollar, the optimal solution now is to open the deals to SELL upon medium term trading. Upon the short-term trading, it is also possible to open the deals on the trend. Read more analytic reviews at superforex.com/analytics
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Post by superforex on May 19, 2017 6:55:15 GMT -5
NZD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast Since the beginning of the year, the rates of the NZD/JPY continued in the frames of the rapid downtrend, however, the situation began to change and the current trend is under threat to change. On the chart has traced the new upward trend. It is too early to speak about the final change, but probability remains high. Both support line and resistance line have been removed. Though if the resistance line shifted in the downward direction, the support line has been reversed up. So, Why the trend has begun to change its direction? In the beginning of the month, the Japanese yen came under the pressure because of geopolitical tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The conflict at any moment could go to the active zone and Japan could be involved in this conflict. So, the yen has lost positions against most currencies. Amid the geopolitical risks for Japan, the new Zealand dollar has been supported by positive data about retail volume which rose in the 1st quarter of 2017 in 1.5% against the forecast of 0.9%. It was the sharpest increase in retail trade since the second quarter of 2016. In addition, the number of tourists in April, continues to grow, increasing by 20% year on year. Strengthening of the NZD also contributes by the rising commodity prices, including oil. Nevertheless, the Japanese yen managed to take the initiative again due to yesterday's data about the Japanese economy. Japan's GDP for the first quarter of 2017 increased by 0.5%, coinciding with the forecasts of investors, and in year on year increasing was 2.2%, against forecasted 1.7%. In addition, second month in a row, orders for machinery have increased, although investors expected more than actual + 1.4% growth. At the moment, the value of NZD consolidated in the range of 76.7 - 77.1 JPY. This levels are good entry points to the market. At the moment, the most optimal can be the deals to BUY, considering that today the market is expecting for the data about the milk price index. It will be published today and can support the NZD in the short term perspective. MACD, RSI oscillators confirm this and also signal a good moment for opening the deals to BUY. As for the medium-term trading, next week we'll get the data about the trade balance and export volumes - both from Japan and New Zealand. So, both currencies can get support and go up in price.
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Post by superforex on May 24, 2017 6:41:01 GMT -5
CAD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast The rates of the CAD/JPY for a long time was in the frames of the rapid downward trend, but now the situation can be changed: the trend had lost its intensity and the canadian dollar strengthened against the yen. Perhaps we can see beginning of a new trend. Actually it has been formed and we can see that resistance line has been shifted, and the support line had turned up. However, given that strengthening of the CAD, is mainly based on the increasing of oil prices, which continues to grow amid upcoming summit of OPEC this Friday, crude oil prices may resume a declining for the next few weeks. And this will happen in any case - if OPEC countries extend the agreement On the reduction of oil and in case if not extended. The reason is that extending of the agreement by the OPEC does not solve all questions about the overabundance of oil on the market. The United States and Canada can negate all effect, and higher prices will only motivate for further increasing of oil production. this has been proven in practice. The Japanese yen wasn't able to resist successfully the onslaught of the Canadian dollar due to disappointing data from Japan this week: trade balance of Japan was 0.1 T in April, although investors expected level of 0.25 T, the volume of exports grew by only 7.5% against the expected growth of 7.8% and the volume of imports increased by 15%, which is more than expected but in the future it is a threat to the trade balance of the country. Next week important data that could support JPY is not expected at all. Thus, we can say that in the short term, the CAD will strengthen against many currencies due to the increasing of oil prices. It's happening now - oil prices on Monday achieved a 5 week high and continue to grow, so the deals to Buy will be most effective at this moment upon short term trading. More reviews at superforex.com/analytics
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Post by superforex on May 26, 2017 7:25:04 GMT -5
XAU/USD (GOLD): Short review and forecast This week prices for Gold continue to grow. The main factor of growth, of course, was the terrorist attack in Manchester, which forced investors to turn to less risky assets. In addition, the growth of prices continued amid the weak dollar and based on the results of the FOMC Committee meeting, where was designated plans of the US Central Bank to reduce the balance before the end of this year. The FED, which had planned a rate increase this year 2 times, began doubt about necessity for further growth of the rate due to weak economic indicators and slowdown of the economy, although the probability of a rate hike in June remains high. Of course it's also impacted the value of GOLD. Political instability in the United States and possibility of beginning a full and protracted political crisis also, contributes the growth. So, there're a lot of factors which say about further increasing of prices. We can say for sure that the upward trend will continue and increase its intensity in the near future. It should be noted that the rates was carried out with high volatility in a wide range, but now the situation changes and the upward trend is more stable, which is clearly seen on the chart. Thus, we can say that at the moment, the deals to BUY are more effective. Oscillator MACD confirms this.
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Post by superforex on May 31, 2017 9:20:28 GMT -5
OIL (CL/WTI): middle term review and forecast Oil prices are gradually decreasing. Extension of the Pact on "Reducing of oil extraction" does not change the situation, as it was expected. OPEC's attempt to impact the market with the help of this agreement will be doomed, amid news about increasing of drilling activity in the USA, 19th week in a row, and increasing of oil production in Libya which haven't joint the agreement on "Reducing of oil extraction". At the same time, in order for achieving the balance on the market and oil prices growth, it is necessary to reduce oil extraction by all countries-manufacturers but this does not happen, and the reserves of crude oil on the market are close to record levels. Thus, the supply continues to exceed demand on the market. Despite the dominant number of negative signals on the market, the rates of oil continues in the frames of the upward trend, though it is solely by inertia, and it's not based on objective factors. There're no perspectives for further growth at the moment. Most likely, in the near future, the upward trend will be changed to the flat trend which has already been formed. Lines of support and resistance can be fixed at the levels of 44.5 and $ 54 a barrel mark CL/WTI. Oscillators are neutral at the moment. Today investors are waiting for the data about oil stocks from the American petroleum Institute. Investors expect a reduction of oil reserves that may support oil prices a bit. Therefore, upon short-term trading, you can open the deals to BUY. But upon medium-term trading, the deals to SELL can be more effective. More reviews at superforex.com/analytics
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Post by superforex on Jun 7, 2017 6:53:15 GMT -5
NZD/USD: fundamental review and forecast Starting from May 2017, the downward trend has been changed by rapid upward trend. The New Zealand dollar reached the highest level 0.72 USD over the last 3 months and continues to go up. The main reason for the rapid growth is a weak dollar, which continues to be under the pressure due to investigations about influence of Russia on elections in the United States. In particular, this Thursday, the former head of the FBI, James Comey, will be reporting in Thursday for the Committee of the U.S. Congress. Investors fear it can impact negatively on the administration of D. Trump , as well as D. Trump. This is why the dollar loses in value against all currencies. But not only the weakening of the dollar affected the rate of NZD/USD. Also impacted received statistics about economy's most important trading partner of New Zealand - Australia. This week, the reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged and predicts economic growth for the next few years. Meanwhile, GDP data for Australia, has pleased investors: growth amounted to 0.3% in Q1 2017, while the market expected growth to 0.2%. Also, business inventories in Australia increased by 1.2 % in Q1 2017, exceeding market expectations of 0.5% growth. This is the strongest growth since 2012. The MACD indicates a good time for short deals. The RSI confirms this, pointing out that the rates are in the overbought zone, and high probability of a price correction. But considering fundamental factors upon medium-term trading, it is better to open the deals on the trend. Peak growth has not been achieved yet, and expected for the next week data about volumes of retail sales and GDP of New Zealand, may support the NZD.
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Post by superforex on Jun 9, 2017 7:16:45 GMT -5
AUD/CAD: review and forecast Сanadian dollar, is under intense pressure due to falling in oil prices. The rates of CL drops and can not find a base to stabilize. At the moment the price of a barrel of oil CL/WTI costs $ 45.39. Such a low level of prices had been reached only once, this year. After positive GDP data in Canada, at the beginning of the month, there were many factors that had a negative impact on the Canadian dollar. In addition to falling of oil prices, the market also dissapointed with statistics about reduction in the number of building permits by 0.2%, while investors expected in April increasing by 2.4%. Also it has been known about reduction of business activity index in Canada (PMI) to 53.8 against expected 62. A month earlier, the index reached a level of 62.4. Given the multiple factors against CAD it is not difficult to assume that the upward trend of AUD/CAD continues. But the Australian dollar deserved to grow even despite the weakening of the Canadian dollar. This week, there were data about GDP for the first quarter of 2017: it has grown to 0.3 percent, slightly exceeding the forecast; yoy GDP growth is more impressive - 1.7% vs. expected growth to 1.5%. The reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged and indicated further economic growth in the next few years.Situation with trading partners of Australia also in favour of Australia. Recently received statistics about China showed growth in exports and imports by 8.7% and 14.8%, significantly exceeding forecasts. In particular, the volume of iron ore imports in May increased by 11%. Also, increased imports of aluminium and copper. Oscillators indicate different signals. Stochastic signalized the beginning of a price correction and a good time for opening the deals against the trend. Upon short-term trading, such deals may be rather effective. Especially given that today we expect data about the change in employment for Canada which can support CAD. But there are no enough preconditions for a trend change. So, upon medium-term trading, it is better to trust the MACD oscillator and open the deals to BUY.
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Post by superforex on Jun 14, 2017 7:53:47 GMT -5
AUD/CAD: review and forecast Сanadian dollar, is under intense pressure due to falling in oil prices. The rates of CL drops and can not find a base to stabilize. At the moment the price of a barrel of oil CL/WTI costs $ 45.39. Such a low level of prices had been reached only once, this year. After positive GDP data in Canada, at the beginning of the month, there were many factors that had a negative impact on the Canadian dollar. In addition to falling of oil prices, the market also dissapointed with statistics about reduction in the number of building permits by 0.2%, while investors expected in April increasing by 2.4%. Also it has been known about reduction of business activity index in Canada (PMI) to 53.8 against expected 62. A month earlier, the index reached a level of 62.4. Given the multiple factors against CAD it is not difficult to assume that the upward trend of AUD/CAD continues. But the Australian dollar deserved to grow even despite the weakening of the Canadian dollar. This week, there were data about GDP for the first quarter of 2017: it has grown to 0.3 percent, slightly exceeding the forecast; yoy GDP growth is more impressive - 1.7% vs. expected growth to 1.5%. The reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged and indicated further economic growth in the next few years.Situation with trading partners of Australia also in favour of Australia. Recently received statistics about China showed growth in exports and imports by 8.7% and 14.8%, significantly exceeding forecasts. In particular, the volume of iron ore imports in May increased by 11%. Also, increased imports of aluminium and copper. Oscillators indicate different signals. Stochastic signalized the beginning of a price correction and a good time for opening the deals against the trend. Upon short-term trading, such deals may be rather effective. Especially given that today we expect data about the change in employment for Canada which can support CAD. But there are no enough preconditions for a trend change. So, upon medium-term trading, it is better to trust the MACD oscillator and open the deals to BUY.
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Post by superforex on Jun 27, 2017 11:42:02 GMT -5
GBP/NZD Technical Outlook after the Financial Stability Report Minutes ago we listened to BOE governor Mark Carney’s speech about the financial stability in the United Kingdom. He said that the financial stability associated with the outcomes or the results of Brexit and the consumer credit has far outpaced household income over last year, and those comments led the pound currency to decline with 20-30 pips against all major currencies and to rise back again. Today we would discuss the GBP/NZD pair which has lost more than 1400 pips since May 22 after breaking the small channel at the top. In our last report we recommended selling the pair at 1.7960 and it achieved our targets at 1.7932 and 1.7465 for more than 490 pips. The pair is trading now at 1.7430, close to the uptrend line which has 4 bottoms. We are waiting for another retest to buy the pair. The Stochastic indicator lines are crossed together at the level 35. The Next Few Days From this analysis of the daily chart we have to wait for a bullish candle at these levels or a little lower on the daily or H4 chart in order to buy the pair. We should keep our first target at 1.7765 and the second one at 1.8150, but if the prices break the trend line and settle down we have to sell the pair to the bottom 1.6830. This week is overwhelmed with hot events like Carney’s speech tomorrow and the current account on Friday from the UK. Read more: superforex.com/analytics/gbp-nzd-technical-outlook-after-the-financial-stability-report
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Post by superforex on Jun 29, 2017 12:01:25 GMT -5
Profi STP account
SuperForex has launched a special type of account for those who really want to tap into the full potential of Forex. This type of account is well-known to professional traders as an STP-account. The main advantage of this account type is that your trading operations go directly to a liquidity provider by using an FX Bridge that allows you to get more comfortable and better conditions for trading. Important conditions and advantages of the Profi-STP account: Minimum deposit: $20 000 (or its equivalent in EUR) Leverage from 1:1 to 1:200 All trading instruments available Minimum trading lot: 0.2, with a step 0.1 lot Stop out/margin call: 20%/50% Variable spreads, from 20% on basic pairs Unlimited trading using Expert Advisors Please note that this account is not compatible with our Bonus program, i.e. you cannot apply for bonuses with this kind of account. Read here: superforex.com/profi-stp-account
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Post by superforex on Jun 30, 2017 11:10:25 GMT -5
The Euro on the Rise The European currency seems to be on the rise, enjoying a positive economic outlook. Here is something we didn’t think we’d be saying so soon: the euro is having a good time. The currency of the European Union went through some serious hardship over the past decade – it suffered immensely in the global recession of 2008, the debt crisis in some EU countries such as Greece and Portugal, which eventually led to further internal conflicts and more trouble for Europe’s unity as the United Kingdom announced its intention to leave and the fear of losing more members spread as Italy and France held elections recently. However, this bleak phase for the euro seems to be approaching an end. Despite small daily fluctuations, which occur naturally when there’s global activity on the financial markets, the euro was able to climb up and is currently in its strongest levels since 2011, according to Reuters. Part of the reason why this is a little surprising is the fact that the European Central Bank, the EU’s organ for monetary policy, has been implementing a stimulus program to boost the European economy by encouraging inflation, something that logically decreases the value of the euro versus other major currencies. It has already been two years since the program began and investors as well as the ECB itself initially expected to continue with this approach for a few years. Nevertheless, recent data from the European Union shows the economy is doing quite well, which prompted ECB President Mario Draghi to show willingness to change the course of the current policy as early as September this year. Read more: superforex.com/analytics/the-euro-on-the-rise
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