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Post by palmfxmart on Dec 6, 2018 21:08:20 GMT -5
BoC Next Rate Hikes are Uncertain as Canadian Dollar Slumps to 18-month LowThe Bank of Canada maintained the interest rates on Wednesday which is already expected and signals gradual future rate hikes. It pushes the Canadian dollar as low as 18-month low that would affect market expectations on another rate hike next month. The central bank has raised their rates five times since July 2017 amid the strengthening of the economy that requires monetary tightening in reaching the target 2.0 percent inflation. Yet, there are downward revisions on growth data from Statistics Canada along with the recent macroeconomic developments. This may mean there is another possibility of non-inflationary growth which can also mean that the economy has not reached the limit as initially thought. The possibility of a rate hike decreased from an estimated of 60 percent prior to the 36 percent based on the overnight index swaps market. A higher change in the next move will lengthen the period that also lessens the possibility for a January rate hike, according to the senior rates strategist at TD Securities, Andrew Kelvin. Overnight interest rate of the bank is at 1.75 percent that is lower than the “neutral” rate of 2.5-3.5 percent. Similarly, the monetary policy is not aggressive or accommodative. The bank remarked that the “Governing Council continues to judge that the policy interest rate will need to rise into a neutral range to achieve the inflation target”. Inflation forecast will be lower in the next month than the former forecast as gasoline prices decline. Yet, the Canadian economy is still in line with the anticipations for the third quarter but momentum will be lesser in the last quarter.
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Post by palmfxmart on Dec 10, 2018 21:31:30 GMT -5
EU’s Investor Morale Plunged to a Four-year Low in DecemberEurozone’s investor morale plunged to a four-year low in December given the trade conflict. Italy’s budget along with the Brexit plan between the EU and Britain resulted in a decline in sentiment, according to the survey on Monday. Results from the Sextic research group shown a drop in investor sentiment index to -0.3 from 8.8 in November, which was the lowest level since December 2014 and the fourth straight monthly drop. The outcome has exceeded expectations to 8.1 decline. Meanwhile, the sub-index at present situation declined to 20.0 from 29.3 in November compared to the forecast of -18.8 from -9.8 the previous month. The Sentix managing director, Manfred Huebner, see that there is no optimism given the present global condition and recalling the 2008 financial crisis. The ECB is planning to end the billion-dollar government bond purchases as the economy declines at an average pace that puts pressure on politicians and central banks, he added. Another index on investor morale in Germany shows a decrease to 7.2 from 15.6 in December which can be deemed as ‘loss of momentum’ with concerns on US tariffs weaker Chinese car sales.
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Post by palmfxmart on Dec 19, 2018 21:59:48 GMT -5
Fed Raise Rates in December 2018 Reduces Hikes Next YearThe US Federal Reserve is anticipated to increase the interest rates on Wednesday but will reduce its rate hike forecast next year. At the same time, this signals the halting of the monetary policy ahead of time, amid the volatility in the financial market and rising concerns of a recession. The central bank is scheduled to announce their decision on interest rates at 14.00 EST (19.00 GMT) after the last two-day policy meeting in 2018. An hour later, Fed chairman Jerome Powell is anticipated to give its speech on a press conference. Investors expect for higher interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, ranging between 2.25 percent and 2.50 percent, which would be the fourth rate hike this year and the ninth since tightening of policies since December 2015. The monetary tightening of Fed is believed to push the US economy higher that has been moving sluggishly at an unsustainable rate. Yet, this would spike a concern on the White House recalling that the US president Donald Trump has been attacking the US central bank for the not performing well to boost the economy. On Tuesday, a warning was heard from President Trump saying to avoid “another mistake.” Fed policymakers seem to be changing the previous forecast of three more rate hikes this year considering various factors such as the decline of oil, as well as the economic growth of both Europe and China. Moreover, there is the $1.5 trillion tax cut program from Trump administration, which is anticipated to contract. Given the fresh economic forecast and the policy statement soon to be released may suggest two rate hikes according to economists. Traders even think that the Fed may not even be able to execute one hike at the very the least.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Jan 16, 2019 23:27:54 GMT -5
Britain Will Exit European Union on March After Losing VotesAccording to Prime Minister Theresa May, Britain will leave the European Union on 29th of March 29th. This can only be reversed and accepted by the bloc if there is another agreement to extend the ‘Article 50’ negotiation. She mentioned after the proposed Brexit deal was rejected by a large difference in the number of votes.
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Post by palmfxmart on Jan 24, 2019 21:27:23 GMT -5
Japan’s Manufacturing Sector Drops in January following Exports DeclineIn anticipation of the next meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which will be held this Thursday, the euro will remain under pressure. Export orders dropped at the fastest rate in Japan in over 2 years, resulting in a hampered growth of the manufacturing sector. Companies also reduced production, according to the preliminary business survey on Thursday. Japan ranking third as the biggest economy is likely to have rising concerns about sluggish growth with the continuous China-US trade war. Possibility dropping to a recession increases for this year amid the cooling demand domestically and globally and another planned tax hike in October based on last week’s poll of Reuters. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) by Flash Markit/Nikkei shows a decline to 50.0 in January on a seasonally adjusted basis from the final figure of 52.6 in December. The 50 mark separates improvement from a decline on a monthly basis. With a steeper decline in export orders, manufacturer’s reduced production for the first time since July 2016. Over six years, the business confidence remained in a positive area. The pessimistic outlook in the manufacturing sector promotes nearing growth period for two and a half year, according to an economist at IHS Markit, Joe Hayes. New orders, being a top indicator of future trading, proposes a weakened activity in the coming months. Total new orders expected the decline to 46.1 from 49.1 in December, which was the steepest rate of decline since July 2016. On Wednesday, the exports data of Japan was the biggest drop in more than two years. Moreover, the rising concern in the Sino-US trade war affects the supply chain on both ends of the Pacific, especially electronics, considering Japan as export led industrialization that is sensitive to global demand changes. The BOJ reduced the inflation forecast and sustained massive stimulus policy on Wednesday with rising pressure on the economy and putting at risk to yield sustainable growth. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund revised lower its global growth forecast. Similarly, China also showed the weakest growth in almost 30 years and presumed to further cool down this year.
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Post by palmfxmart on Feb 13, 2019 0:20:14 GMT -5
BoE Governor Mark Carney Warns the Risk of Disturbing Global “Delicate Equilibrium”Bank of England Governor Mark Carney expects a steady slower pace economic growth globally but concerns on trade war and rising protectionism can affect the “delicate equilibrium”. He mentioned a jump on tighter monetary conditions, due to increasing policy rates, and trade tensions to be the reasons for the recent sluggish growth in the global economy. An increasing debt in China and new barriers to global trade gives an important and “growing” risk to the outlook of the world economy with protection already giving a blow in the market, according to Carney in a speech on Tuesday. He raised the question if the global expansion since 2010 starts to recede amid the “ confluence of the current broad-based slowdown and outstanding downside risks”. Although there are risks on declining world economic growth, considering both the policy procedure and uncertainty in “advanced economies” opens the chance for stability in the future with its “ new and modest trend.”. Notably, he said, “But this is a judgment, not a guarantee. The world is in a delicate equilibrium.” Carney described that it is not easy not to triumph in a trade war in association with the words said by US president Trump saying, “good, and easy to win”. Nonetheless, he reckoned that everybody is looking for a “solution” that benefits all. Britain leaving the EU is set on March 29 without a deal. The only chance for this to turn around is if Theresa May can persuade the bloc to amend a divorce deal in November and then win the approval of wary policymakers in Europe.
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Post by palmfxmart on Feb 13, 2019 0:21:11 GMT -5
BoE Governor Mark Carney Warns the Risk of Disturbing Global “Delicate Equilibrium”Bank of England Governor Mark Carney expects a steady slower pace economic growth globally but concerns on trade war and rising protectionism can affect the “delicate equilibrium”. He mentioned a jump on tighter monetary conditions, due to increasing policy rates, and trade tensions to be the reasons for the recent sluggish growth in the global economy. An increasing debt in China and new barriers to global trade gives an important and “growing” risk to the outlook of the world economy with protection already giving a blow in the market, according to Carney in a speech on Tuesday. He raised the question if the global expansion since 2010 starts to recede amid the “ confluence of the current broad-based slowdown and outstanding downside risks”. Although there are risks on declining world economic growth, considering both the policy procedure and uncertainty in “advanced economies” opens the chance for stability in the future with its “ new and modest trend.”. Notably, he said, “But this is a judgment, not a guarantee. The world is in a delicate equilibrium.” Carney described that it is not easy not to triumph in a trade war in association with the words said by US president Trump saying, “good, and easy to win”. Nonetheless, he reckoned that everybody is looking for a “solution” that benefits all. Britain leaving the EU is set on March 29 without a deal. The only chance for this to turn around is if Theresa May can persuade the bloc to amend a divorce deal in November and then win the approval of wary policymakers in Europe.
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Post by palmfxmart on Apr 25, 2019 23:59:42 GMT -5
BOJ plans to keep interest rates very low until early 2020The central bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy on Thursday. Moreover, they elucidated their plan to keep the borrowing rates at a very low rate for a longer period of time, at least until the “spring” season of 2020. In highly anticipated action, the Boj aims around minus 0.1 percent as their short-term interest rate and extended their long-term interest rates. At the same time, they vowed to keep the 10-year government bonds into zero percent. Although, the central bank did not specify the length of time in implementing very low-interest rates. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is scheduled to hold a news conference today at 06.30 GMT.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Nov 8, 2019 11:07:47 GMT -5
08.11. Gold shows worst indicators in two yearsGold prices continue to show the worst performance over the past two years, responding to positive news on the settlement of trade differences between the US and China. Today, gold futures for December delivery fell to $1,457.10 per troy ounce, plummeting from the $1,493 area. Such lows were the biggest loss since 2017. The pressure on the precious metal was exerted by news about the mutual abolition of US and Chinese duties. The elimination of duties is one of the main conditions for concluding the first stage of a trade deal. Success in negotiations supports the full range of risky assets, and gold, as a rule, moves in the opposite direction from risk. Additional pressure on gold was exerted by the news that the People's Bank of China, being a constant accumulator of gold bullion, was not able to replenish its reserves again in October.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Nov 11, 2019 9:56:25 GMT -5
11.11. Oman believes non-OPEC will extend the deal to reduce oil productionOman’s energy minister Mohammed bin Hamad al-Rumhy said today, that OPEC and non-OPEC producers will probably extend a deal to limit crude supply, but the oil production will be kept at the current level (1.2 million barrels per day). The minister also noted, that oil demand was improving lately as trade tensions soften and that Oman was satisfied with current oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and other allies have agreed since January to reduce oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day to maintain the market. Nowadays the experts see signs of improvement in the situation with balance of demand and supply in the oil market, fear of recession is getting lower, and optimistic signals about a trade agreement between the US and China make unnecessary the further reducing measures.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Nov 12, 2019 9:32:03 GMT -5
12.11. The world’s largest trade deal could be signed in 2020After more than 6 years of negotiations, a group of 15 Asia-Pacific countries is going to sign the the world’s largest trade agreement in 2020. The deal is called Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and it will involve all 10 countries from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc and five of its major trading partners: Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea. The United States are not to be the joiner to the RCEP. Initially India planned to join the mega-deal, but later decided to abstain from participation in trade pact over concerns that it would hurt domestic producers. In any case, the 15 member-countries make up close to one-third of the world population and global gross domestic product. So, the uniting within the RCEP would boost trade throughout the group by reducing tariffs, standardizing customs rules and procedures and expanding market access, especially among countries that have not concluded trade agreements.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Nov 13, 2019 9:32:44 GMT -5
13.11. The results of D. Trump’s speech at the Economic Club of New YorkYesterday in a speech to the Economic Club of New York US President Donald Trump announced the «imminent» prospects of completing the first phase of the trade deal with China, but did not provide any new details about the talks. The president’s speech disappointed investors, as they awaited any important political statements to be made. But Trump didn’t announce the place and date of signing a trade deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping, as it was expected before. Instead of this American president threaten to «very substantially» raise tariffs on Chinese goods if China does not make a deal with the United States. Along with this Trump noted, that the US would only accept the deal if it served the interests of his country, American employees and companies. The biggest part of president’s speech was devoted to success of White House administration. Trump said his staff had worked hard to bolster the economy despite of «too many interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve».
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Nov 19, 2019 11:03:22 GMT -5
19.11. Global stocks hit two-year highsToday world stocks reached two-year highs, as investors still believe that the US and China will be able to close a deal and put an end to a destructive trade war. The two largest economies in the world are negotiating a deal, which must end the 18-month trade conflict that shook global markets, but at the same time Washington is intending to introduce additional duties on Chinese goods on December 15. Despite the lack of clarity on the progress of the talks, investors are encouraged by the growing hopes to reduce recession risks. Moreover, monetary easing by large central banks, such as China, has also helped to strengthen investors sentiment towards stocks. Thereby, the global MSCI index, which tracks stocks in 47 countries, added 0.1%, reaching the highest level since last January. European stocks also rose: Euro STOXX 600 added 0.4%, peaking since July 2015. Indices in Frankfurt (GDAXI) and London (FTSE) rose 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively. Futures on Wall Street (ESc1) also showed a positive start, adding 0.2%.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Nov 20, 2019 10:34:47 GMT -5
20.11. Trump says China tariffs will go «even higher» without dealOn Wednesday, American futures fell after US President Donald Trump again threatened to increase duties on Chinese goods if the parties did not sign a trade deal in the near future. «If we don’t make a deal with China on our terms, I will raise the tariffs even higher», – Trump told reporters at the meeting in the White House. Trump’s message frightened investors and made them turn to defensive assets. Moreover the most of US futures showed decline. In particular, the Nasdaq 100 index fell 41 points or 0.5%, Dow futures lost 103 points or 0.4%, and S&P 500 futures fell 10 points or 0.4%. Urban Outfitters Inc shares fell 16.1%, Pacific Gas lost 4.7% at the premarket, while Micron shares declined by 1.3%.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Nov 21, 2019 9:45:16 GMT -5
21.11. Russia expects Nord Stream 2 to begin operations in mid-2020Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak said that Russia’s Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline is expected to begin operations in mid-2020, despite opposition from some European countries and the United States. The States affirm that the gas project will increase Europe’s dependence on Russian gas, which runs counter to the interests of the White House. As a result, the United States were putting pressure on European countries to slow down the Russian project. For example, Denmark issued a permit to build a gas pipeline in the country's exclusive economic zone only at the end of October. Earlier, the Russian president called on the Danish authorities not to succumb to pressure from the United States and to defend their sovereignty. Recall that Nord Stream-2 will run along the bottom of the Baltic Sea from the coast of Russia to the coast of Germany. The throughput of the pipe is 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year. The project cost is estimated at 10 billion euros.
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