|
Post by superforex on Sept 29, 2017 9:24:09 GMT -5
Trump`s tax reform
How does this new suggested legislation affect the US economy? This week we chose to return our discussion to the political situation in the United States where we have another major news story: the new tax plan proposed by President Trump’s administration. This story is significant particularly because this is barely the second major piece of legislation that Trump’s office has produced. The first one was the now infamous health care bill which died a slow death in Congress, repeatedly. The failure of the administration then drove investors to doubt the stability of Trump’s mandate, which was a major contributor to the record lows of the American dollar registered up until last week. Can this new bill on taxes have the same impact? Let’s see! First off, we need to acknowledge how important tax policy was to Trump’s presidential campaign. He had a few key issues that were the highlights of his rhetoric: immigration, repeal Obamacare, and a better tax policy, among a few that stand out the most. His attempts to curb immigration through travel bans have been met with major disapproval, his plans to repeal or replace Obamacare have failed, and now his proposal on tax policy is met with a lot of doubt before it’s even fully-defined. Trump’s previous failures managed to shake the dollar, so it is reasonable to argue that if his tax bill is a fiasco, he might hurt the American currency again. The plan that Trump’s administration announced on Wednesday can hardly be called anything, according to experts. It contains vague outlines of the administration’s goals while it lacks clear explanations of how they propose to achieve them. The actual work on making this plan more meaningful still lies ahead and may take months, according to CNN. What we know for certain is that the plan will decrease the top income tax from 39.6 to 35%, giving a major advantage to the richest Americans. The proposal would suggests an increase of the ratio of income that is exempt from taxes, which would mean a lower tax for every individual. While this sounds great for people’s personal incomes, it would make a major dent in the budget of the United States, due to trillions of dollars of potential tax revenue not being collected. Trump’s tax plan doesn’t provide any guidance on how the budget shortage will be compensated under such a policy. It also doesn’t prove that this new tax system won’t place a greater burden on the middle class, which Trump has stated he wants to protect. It very clearly benefits the rich, while it’s murky (at best) in terms of all other income groups in the United States. The plan also suggests a simplification of the tax system by collapsing the current seven-step policy (where seven different income groups are taxed a different percentage, between 10% and 39.6% for the poorest and richest incomes, respectively). The new system would have just three groups: 12%, 25%, and 35%, but the income brackets for each tax rate are still unknown. It’s also interesting that some corporate taxes are proposed for the 25% rate instead of the 35%, which may cause a lot of tax fraud. Considering how much information is missing from the proposal, it’s still very difficult to dissect it. However, Republicans themselves do not agree on many of these issues, not to mention that Democrats are not likely to support anything that cuts the taxes of the wealthy, so this piece of legislation is likely to have trouble passing through Congress – if it is ever completed. Right now there might not be too much to this story as we still need to hear more concrete points about the tax bill. However, it’s worth it to stay tuned and watch out for further instability within the United States. They are already in the spotlight due to tensions with North Korea – any internal disorder would only worsen their economic climate and weaken the dollar.
|
|
|
Post by superforex on Oct 2, 2017 7:52:14 GMT -5
GBP/AUD Technical Outlook before the Cash RateLooking for new highs after breaking the price channel. In our last report about the GBP/AUD on September 5 the pair was trading inside a descending price channel and we recommended selling the pair if the prices are still trading between its limits, unless the prices broke the limit. We saw the pair broke the upper limit on September 12 and retested the broken level on Sep 14, so we closed our sell positions and we were supposed to take buy positions after the retest, according to classical theory in case of breakthroughs. After the price channel breaking, Forex theory says that the prices will rise as much as the last upside wave before the channel. You can see the black lines in the chart below, so the target of this wave will be at 1.7870. The pair reached the key resistance level 1.7143 last week, which has 10 tops and bottoms on it. You can see 5 in the chart below, so the prices will make a little downward correction and rise again to break it. The moving average is still trading below the prices to support our positive vision for the pair. The Next Few Days Based on this analysis, we have taken a positive vision after breaking the channel. We know that the pair will break the resistance level soon, so we can take a buy position now at the current level at 1.7024 and if the prices return back to 1.6980 we can take another buy position, keeping our target at 1.7625 and another long-term target at 1.7870. Tomorrow we have the cash rate and the policy statement from the Republic Bank of Australia and PMI’s data from the UK on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Thursday we have the retail sales and trade balance from Australia, so we should trade carefully this week due to this news.
|
|
|
Post by superforex on Oct 3, 2017 5:25:45 GMT -5
GBP/USD Technical Analysis & Daily Chart
The pound-dollar pair is now demonstrating a downward movement. Our price is under the slow moving MA (120), which now becomes our support level. Against the backdrop of not the most optimistic data on business activity in the industrial sector of the United Kingdom, we continue to observe the strengthening of the dollar against the British currency. That signals a possible slowdown in economic growth. Our technical indicators also indicate a downward movement. The pair is delayed near stronger, day-time Fibo levels. That is why at the moment it is recommended to look for points to enter short positions. Support and resistance levels: 1.3350 1.3300 1.3225 1.3200 1.3160 1.3100 superforex.com/additionalimages/03-10-2017/gbp-usd-technical-analysis-daily-chart-031017-0.jpg
|
|
|
Post by superforex on Oct 4, 2017 7:53:43 GMT -5
USD/MXN: Short Review & Forecast
The USD has strengthened against most currencies based on positive economic news and increased probability for a new rate hike this year. The U.S. dollar strengthened against most currencies this week. At the same time, the tragic event in Las Vegas wasn't noticed by investors amid positive economic news, which increases the probability of a rate hike in the United States. FED Chairman Janet Yellen also said that the Central Bank is not going to refuse one more rate hike which was scheduled this year. In addition, the dollar received support from the tax reform which was promised personally by Donald Trump. Also, the USD has been supported given the probability of a change of the head of the Federal Reserve. Analysts forecast that Kevin Warsh will be chosen as new FED Head. It's known that he is a supporter of a strong dollar and tight monetary policy. Consequently, there are perspectives for further strengthening of the dollar. Data about the Mexican economy also pleased investors this week. The business activity index amounted to 52.8 points in September, surpassing investors' expectations. This is a record level in recent years, but the decision of the Central Bank of Mexico to keep the rate at the same level didn't support significantly the MXN compared to the strong dollar. So, the rates continue in the frames of a downward trend, although the resistance line has been gradually shifting upwards for the last several months, indicating a weakening of the current trend. However, at the moment the most optimal would be the deals on the trend, which is confirmed unanimously by the MACD and Stochastics oscillators.
|
|
|
Post by superforex on Oct 5, 2017 7:47:45 GMT -5
EUR/CHF technical analysisAt the moment we are seeing an upward movement in this pair. Despite the destabilizing factors from the eurozone, the euro continues to strengthen against the Swiss currency after a recent sharp fall. Technical indicators indicate to us an upward movement. The price at the moment is under the moving average MA (89) and is trying to break it. From a fundamental standpoint, we do not expect any factors contradicting this price movement neither for the franc, nor for the euro. Therefore, we will look for an entrance into long positions near the support lines and exit points near the resistance levels. Support and resistance levels: 1.1355 1.1435 1.1460 1.1495 1.1525 1.1550
|
|
|
Post by superforex on Oct 5, 2017 7:51:46 GMT -5
EUR/CHF
At the moment we are seeing an upward movement in this pair. Despite the destabilizing factors from the eurozone, the euro continues to strengthen against the Swiss currency after a recent sharp fall. Technical indicators indicate to us an upward movement. The price at the moment is under the moving average MA (89) and is trying to break it. From a fundamental standpoint, we do not expect any factors contradicting this price movement neither for the franc, nor for the euro. Therefore, we will look for an entrance into long positions near the support lines and exit points near the resistance levels. Support and resistance levels: 1.1355 1.1435 1.1460 1.1495 1.1525 1.1550
|
|
|
Post by superforex on Oct 6, 2017 9:03:44 GMT -5
Catalonia: Spanish or Independent?
Last week's referendum has brought new tensions to Europe. The European markets shook this week, as last weekend Catalonia, an autonomous area comprising four provinces in northeastern Spain, held a referendum and voted in support of its independence from Spain. This week we would take a look at what happened and also where that leaves us now. To begin with, the political status of Catalonia has long been a pressing concern on the Iberian peninsula. The region has long claimed it is a distinct nation, owing to historical evidence that up to the 16th century, it used to be separate from Spain. In modern history, Catalonia has fought for its independence all throughout the 20th century: it first received a status as an autonomous region within Spain in 1932, which was taken away during Franco’s rule. The autonomous status of Catalonia was restored in the 1970s when Spain returned to democratic rule. Catalans are allowed to speak their own language and have their own government, though officially it is subordinate to the Spanish government. Over the last few years tensions regarding Catalan nationality have risen, culminating in last week’s referendum. Spain is naturally opposed to losing land and people which have been part of its territory over the last five centuries. Catalonia also happens to be a fairly rich territory. In general, if Catalonia declares independence, this would be perceived by Spanish authorities as an attempt to disrupt Spain’s territorial integrity and could even lead to (civil) war. Is Catalonia independent? Right now, no. The referendum’s goal was to assess whether the Catalan population wants to be independent from Spain. They voted 90% in favor, but it is up to the Catalan government to decide whether to act on this vote or not. The referendum itself caused violent clashes with the Spanish police, so the Catalan authorities might bide their time, working out a way to avoid future conflict. The Catalan president Carles Puigdemont has spoken about involving international diplomats to help hold peaceful negotiations. Naturally, the seriousness of this situation has caused ripples through the financial markets. Spanish stocks lost 2.7% this week, while banks that are based in Barcelona (the capital of Catalonia) were a whole 7% down. Spanish bonds have also decreased. So, what happens now? Some analysts believe that Catalonia is not fully prepared for independence, in terms of its political organs and readiness for policy making. The region has relied on Spain, and by extension, the European Union for many of its day-to-day activities, so severing that relationship will be hard. If Catalonia declared independence without Spain’s approval, it would find itself in a tight spot. Spain’s economy will also suffer immensely, and future clashes and protests will hinder business activity. Investors could give up on Spanish assets altogether, which could plunge the government into a recession. It is more likely that there will be a negotiation, which could win Catalonia additional levels of control over its activities, but would still not be a complete independence from Spain. Because of the current protests and blocked roads, it has been impossible for some businesses to operate as usual. If things continue to be so chaotic and uncertain, Spain’s economic growth would stall. Right now all eyes are on the Iberian Peninsula. If the King of Spain agrees to meet for peaceful negotiations, the pressure would ease off Spanish assets. However, if Catalonia moves ahead and declares independence, we could see a new crisis in Spain, and consequently Europe.
|
|
|
Post by superforex on Oct 9, 2017 8:20:18 GMT -5
AUD/JPY Technical Outlook & Daily Chart
After breaking the channel, the pair is looking forward to the next support level. Last week the AUD/JPY declined by more than 130 pips after the negative retail sales from Australia, which came at -0.6% compared to the forecasted at 0.3% and the previous one at -0.2%. As a result, the pair slipped from 88.60 to trade now at 87.30. In our last report about the pair we recommended buying the pair around 88.00 and the prices hit our targets at 89.00 and 90.20. The pair is trading at the support level 87.38 after it broke the short-term price channel last Friday and closed the candle below it, so it may lead the price to further lows in the next days. The moving average is trading above the price to support the negative movement but we have to see a candle close below the support level. The RSI indicator is ahead of 10 level to make an overbought action. The Next Few Days Based on this analysis of the the daily chart, we will look forward to an H4 or daily candle closing below the support level 87.38 to sell the pair below it, keeping our target at 85.80. Then we will stay out of the market to see what will happen and the lower limit of the long-term channel. On the other hand, if we see the price back to trade above 88.25 we can buy it till the next resistance level. This week the markets don’t have any important news from Australia or Japan but we will trade carefully regarding any uncalendared news because of the political tensions between the USA and North Korea.
|
|
|
Post by superforex on Oct 10, 2017 7:49:07 GMT -5
GBP/CAD Technical Outlook & Daily Chart After breaking the channel, we are still looking forward new highs, despite the downward movement this month. In our previous report about the GBP/CAD pair last month we mentioned the channel breaking and recommended buying the pair after the break. We saw the prices rose last month but they haven't hit our target yet. This month the pair has been declining to reach down the moving average for the last 50 days around 1.6367 - it found a support level there. The pair is now trading around 1.6500, below 38.2% Fibonacci but we expect the prices will break it up again to resume the correction wave and reach 50% and 61.8% and maybe more, if they break last month’s high after forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern. If the prices rose from here directly, the MACD indicator will start giving us a sell signal but the columns are still above the zero level. The Next Few Days The plan from here is straightforward. In case of any downward movement we will buy the pair to our main target at 50% - we can take a buy position now around 1.6500 and close part of the trade at 1.5710, and the rest of orders at 1.6850. That is in case the pair is still trading above 1.6223. The manufacturing production was released from the UK and came in positive numbers at 0.4%, compared to the forecasted 0.2%. This week we don’t have any important news elsewhere from the UK or Canada but we have to look at the chart periodically even once a day in anticipation of any uncalendared news.
|
|
|
Post by superforex on Oct 11, 2017 7:50:12 GMT -5
XAU/USD: Short Review & Forecast
The strong USD and the high probability of a rate hike this year put pressure on the GOLD. However, the geopolitical situation can change everything. The situation on the market changed last month and the upward trend turned into a downward one. Until September the dollar had been under pressure due to geopolitical conflicts, the failure of Donald Trump's reforms and weak economic statistics. Consequently, a further increasing of the interest rate this year was doubtful for investors. All these negative factors followed one by one and put pressure on the dollar. Therefore, investors chose safer assets. This led to the Gold rising in price since the beginning of the year. This week the dollar came under pressure again due to geopolitical risks because North Korea has announced new tests of ballistic missiles which are capable of reaching U.S. territory. However, the dollar has kept at a good level due to the strong economic statistics. The latest data on the labor market showed a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.2% - the lowest level since 2001. In addition, the average hourly earnings have grown by 2.9%, which increases the probability of rising inflation. Therefore, a rate hike in the US in December is now expected by investors with a probability of 90%. The resistance line of the trend is under the threat of moving up due to all of the geopolitical risks, but at the moment the most optimal course would be the short deals in the short-term, which is also confirmed by the MACD oscillator.
|
|
|
Post by superforex on Oct 12, 2017 8:35:10 GMT -5
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
Today during the Australian session there were a number of indicators for Australia released, which were generally higher than projected. At the moment the pair is trading in the corridor between Fibo levels held on the daily chart. We observe that the price breaks through the "body" of the candle into our levels and often returns to the previous range. If we view our graph from the point of view of wave analysis, then we can observe the completion of the medium-term downward movement and the formation of the second upward wave. This is why today's trading recommendation is to look for points to enter long positions in the area of the mark of 0.7810 with the expectation of the formation of an upward wave.
|
|
|
Post by superforex on Oct 13, 2017 8:04:01 GMT -5
Recent Developments with Oil
The latest events in the US, OPEC, and China have helped stabilize the oil market, but where is it really going?
To anyone interested in the financial markets it is hardly a secret that crude oil has been really far away from its usual glamour over the past few years. What started off as competition between the OPEC states (chiefly led by Saudi Arabia) and the United States exacerbated and led to a dramatically oversupplied oil market, bringing prices down to record lows. Now, more than two years later, is oil finally recovering?
First off, if we look to the United States, generally speaking, they have consistently increased their oil extraction activities. Thanks to shale oil, the US is able to extract oil in a cost-effective manner that allows them to make a profit even at low oil prices. This is why throughout the oil crisis the United States remained undeterred and kept up with their schedule as if nothing out of the ordinary is going on. Towards the end of this summer, however, the US was forced to put some of its activities on hold due to a series of natural disasters along its coastlines, which caused huge damages and disrupted the work of oil extraction facilities. This allowed the markets to ease off somewhat, but there was no reason to assume that the United States would decrease their oil production anytime soon.
On the other hand, last year OPEC member states managed to agree to start cutting their oil production in order to fight the oversupply on the market. With an unbelievably committed compliance with the agreement of up to 90% OPEC managed to decrease their exports and gradually bring oil prices up past the psychological level of $50 per barrel. They were also helped by non-OPEC countries like Russia who willingly joined the reduction effort in order to stabilize the oil market. Investors perked up recently amid news both from OPEC and Russia that everyone is willing to continue with this approach into 2018 in an attempt to restore the market to how it used to be.
Nevertheless, yesterday data on the US oil reserves was released which showed a decline in the number of barrels available. This allowed oil prices to climb up to $51.01 (WTI) and $56.58 (Brent).
In addition, China entered into play again. At the beginning of the oil crisis, China (the biggest oil importer in the world) was quite important – due to its slowing economic growth, it simply didn’t demand as much oil as before, so it left the market oversupplied. Now China has started buying oil again, though according to reports, it is not consumer demand, but rather to fill its security reserves. Still, this helped ease the market further.
Another important factor for the oil market right now is the Iran deal. It has to be renewed every 90 days and it’s widely expected that Donald Trump would not renew it this week. If he does not renew it, US Congress has two more months to decide on sanctions for Iran, which could block some of the oil supply coming from there. If this happens, supply will decrease and oil prices will move up.
According to the International Energy Agency, 2018 would generally shape to be a balanced year for oil. They report steady increases in demand, which would lead to a healthier oil market, provided the current production levels are met. However, this means that OPEC would need to extend its agreement on production cuts past March 2018, when it is set to expire. If a new agreement is reached and we do not see massive natural disasters, then next year we could finally see the oil market recover.
|
|
|
Post by superforex on Oct 18, 2017 7:54:26 GMT -5
USD/SEK: Review & Forecast There is no news from Sweden, so the USD/SEK rate is depending on the situation in the USA. Investors are focused on news about choosing a new FED Head. Over the last month the situation for the USD/SEK currency pair has not changed. The rates continue in the frames of a downward trend with signs of consolidation. The range of the consolidation phase at the moment is 8.0249-8.1862 SEK. This week the rates were under the influence of the situation in the United States. The U.S. dollar strengthened against most currencies amid the unstable political situation in the EU. Investors are focusing on the appointment of a new head of the Federal Reserve. This week it was reported that Donald Trump would like to see a supporter of tight monetary policy fill the position of Fed Head. On Monday he met with one of the candidates for the post, John Taylor, who was in favor of active interest rate increase and the achievement of a level three times the current one. Donald Trump was pleased with the meeting, but at the moment it is unknown who will finally be chosen in February 2018. Investors are expecting Trump's decision by November 3. In any case, the current head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, also expressed there is a high probability of a rate hike despite the low inflation indicator. She said that the U.S. economy is currently strong enough and the good situation on the labour market allows for an increase in the interest rate in the near future. The Stochastics oscillator signals reaching the overbought zone and the probability of a price correction in the near future, which allows us to make a profit with short deals. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the USD has the potential for further strengthening in the medium term perspectives. Therefore, pay attention to the point of entry 8.1862 SEK, which may indicate not only the completion of the consolidation phase, but also the trend reversal in favor of USD. On the other hand, the achievement of the level 8.0249 SEK confirms the continuation of the current downtrend.
|
|
|
Post by superforex on Oct 19, 2017 9:40:45 GMT -5
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis & Daily Chart The pair continues its bullish movement. Today we would direct our attention to the EUR/JPY currency pair. It has been moving in an upwards direction since May this year, and despite some fluctuations here and there, this still remains the general trend. The pair is currently seeing some volatility because we are awaiting a speech by the ECB chief Mario Draghi, as well as the CPI release from the eurozone. In Japan we received news that the Bank of Japan is firmly supporting a dovish policy for the near future, which would allow the yen to ease on most currencies. Right now we have a pivot point for the price located at 132.86. Below the pivot lie the support levels of 132.6, 132.21, and 131.56. Just above the pivot we have the nearby resistance levels at 133.25, 133.52, and 134.17. Here we can apply the general rule for price movements: if the price falls below the pivot, expect it to touch the support levels; if it goes above the pivot, then the resistances might be overcome. As of the moment of this article’s publication the EUR/JPY is trading around 133.08, which is above the pivot and close to the first resistance level. Although the various technical indicators are giving us some mixed signals, most favor taking a sell position right now. Our general outlook for the pair is bullish.
|
|
|
Post by superforex on Oct 20, 2017 9:30:59 GMT -5
NZD/USD: Fundamental Review & ForecastSpeculations around the Federal Reserve and positive statistics support the USD. The NZD continues to fall. The rates continue in the frames of a downtrend. The New Zealand dollar still cannot find enough incentives for strengthening and a trend reversal in its favor. The situation may change if the RBNZ makes a decision to raise interest rates at their next meeting which will be held on November 8. There are reasons for the increase, such as inflation growth in Q3 to 1.9%, which not only exceeds the expectations of investors, but also exceeds the forecast of the RBNZ. Given that at the moment the interest rate is at a historic minimum and has not changed for a long time, the RBNZ may revise the rate at their next meeting, although it had previously planned to do that in 2019. This week the rates were influenced by speculations about who would be the new head of the Federal Reserve. Initially, it was predicted that Donald Trump wants to choose a supporter of tight monetary policy, but the latest information on the market is that the biggest chances are currently for a supporter of less “hawkish” policy, Jerome Powell. The U.S economic statistics were positive enough: the manufacturing PMI for the state of New York in October jumped to 30.2 points. The index of business activity from Philadelphia's FED also unexpectedly increased in September. There was also positive data on the labor market. All of this has led to the dollar's strengthening against the NZD. After the publication of the recent data about inflation in New Zealand, the NZD managed to strengthen a bit against the dollar, but then the rates went down due to positive economic data and the speculation around the FED in the USA. Nevertheless, now the NZD has all chances to strengthen in the near future. Oscillators (Stochastics, MACD, RSI) unanimously point to the rates in the oversold zone, suggesting the expediency of opening the deals to buy against the trend to make a profit based on the price correction.
|
|